UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill goes down this Saturday night, live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. A Strawweight bout between Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill headlines the card. Both fighters are looking to get back into the win column after dropping their last fight via split decisions. The winner of this bout will solidify themselves amongst the top ten in the division. With that being said, let’s take a look at the odds, pick some fights, and win ourselves some money. As always, the odds are provided by 5dimes via bestfightodds.com.
Please note that my official plays are at the end of the article, but there are always betting angles that I present in my individual fight breakdowns that may help you make your own picks and win some money.
Odds
Michelle Waterson (+105) vs. Angela Hill (-115)
Ottman Azaitar (+110) vs. Khama Worthy (-120)
Andrea Lee (-320) vs. Roxanne Modafferi (+260)
Ed Herman (+205) vs. Mike Rodriguez (-245)
Bobby Green (-260) vs. Alan Patrick (+220)
Kyle Nelson (+220) vs. Billy Quarantillo (-260)
Julia Avila (-290) vs. Sijara Eubanks (+245)
Kevin Croom (N/A) vs. Roosevelt Roberts (N/A)
Roque Martinez (+255) vs. Alexander Romanov (-310)
Jalin Turner (-325) vs. Brok Weaver (+265)
Bryan Barberena (-255) vs. Anthony Ivy (+215)
Justine Kish (+195) vs. Sabina Mazo (-235)
Preview
Michelle Waterson (+105) vs. Angela Hill (-115)
Michelle Waterson comes in on a two-fight losing streak looking to right the ship. Angela Hill on the other hand was streaking, with three straight wins before dropping her last fight.
Angela Hill has been very active this year. This is her fourth fight of the year and the first headliner for her in the UFC. On the feet, Angela Hill has a clear advantage in this fight. She likes to pressure her opponents and make sure that she controls the center of the octagon. When in the center she uses a nice jab to keep her opponent off balance. She also has pretty good power in her hands. Hill will use faints and fakes to attack the legs of her opponent with hard kicks.
Michelle Waterson comes into this fight with a clear advantage on the ground. Hill does not do good on the ground. This is where Waterson will look to take the fight. She has decent enough striking to get in on her opponent and get timely body locks. Once there, she attempts to get the fight down to the mat with trips. On the mat, Waterson loves to immediately go for the back of her opponent and get the rear-naked choke.
If Hill can keep the fight standing, she gets the win. If Waterson can get the fight to the ground, she gets the win. I believe in the latter. I think Waterson will able to get this fight to the ground consistently over the course of five rounds. She will be able to threaten submissions throughout this fight and maybe even lock one up. This is going to be a super close fight and I do not fault you for taking Hill here. Personally, I struggled to land on a side here. Given Hill’s past cardio issues, this being a five-round fight, and Waterson’s likely success in the grappling department, I went with Waterson.
Ottman Azaitar (+110) vs. Khama Worthy (-120)
This should be a fun fight and if it lasts past the first round, it could be the fight of the night. Both of these guys are super aggressive on the feet. They start fast, looking to knock their opponents out in the first round. They will happily take damage to inflict damage.
This is a close fight and I can see it going either way. I’m riding with the underdog here in Azaitar for the simple fact that if this fight gets out of the first round he’s got the better cardio. More importantly, he’s got the cardio to be able to grapple and take Worthy down after what I expect to be a crazy output in the first. Worthy can be taken down and is not good on the ground. This is the X-factor for me and I’m taking Azaitar to get the victory in what should be an entertaining fight.
Andrea Lee (-320) vs. Roxanne Modafferi (+260)
This is a very interesting line. Personally, I do not get it. Andrea Lee is the more skilled and better fighter in most aspects of this fight versus Roxanne Modafferi. However, she does not do well against wrestlers or fighters that want to clinch and grind out victories. That’s Roxanne Modafferi. Modafferi dirties up fights with her physicality and relentless grind, something that I think will give Lee problems. Lee is talented, but Modafferi’s style is the perfect style to beat Lee. Modafferi already has one victory over Lee from back in the day. Granted, they totally different fighters now though. Still, I’m sticking with Modafferi. I believe she gets the decision victory here with her relentless clinch work up against the cage and her wrestling.
Ed Herman (+205) vs. Mike Rodriguez (-245)
This will be short and sweet. Mike Rodriguez has ridiculous power, especially in the first round. Ed Herman is tough but has taken a TON of damage over the years and his chin is susceptible to said power. I think Rodriguez gets the first-round knockout here.
Bobby Green (-260) vs. Alan Patrick (+220)
Bobby Green comes into this fight looking for his third win in three months. He’s been super active and he’s looked good. On the feet, Green is a very fluid striker. He slips punches well and then lands his own regularly. Wrestling wise, he’s good offensively and defensively. If taken down, he’s hard to hold down which is key against an opponent like Alan Patrick.
Alan Patrick relies on his athletic ability in his fights. He loves to faint and threaten level changes. He uses his level changes and the threat of a takedown to set-up his striking. However, he’s not that good of a striker. He’s going to look to grapple with Green. He’s good in the clinch where he’s got good body locks and executes good trips. When on top, he chips away at his opponents with punches and elbows. He’s got cardio for days.
Bobby Green is the more active fighter here, who’s sort of hit a career resurgence in 2020. I know it’s only two fights, but he looks like he’s getting better, even at his age. I expect Green to continue to enjoy success in 2020 and get the victory here.
Kyle Nelson (+220) vs. Billy Quarantillo (-260)
Kyle Nelson, skill-wise, is going to be a good test for Billy Quarantillo. Nelson is a very well-rounded fighter. He’s aggressive on the feet as he comes out fast looking to engage off the bat. He’s fluid on the feet. He has big power, good jabs, and good counter left hooks. He’s a good grappler who is solid if the fight takes place on the mat.
Billy Quarantillo has a lot of momentum behind him. He’s looked good since entering the UFC and the UFC is definitely pushing him. They believe in this kid and for good reason. He is a very talented fighter who excels in all areas of his fights. He’s a pressure striker who throws solid combinations. He attacks the body well. If he wants to, he can also take the fight to the mat. He’s a good grappler who can ground and pound his opponents or submit them from numerous positions. This kid looks like the real deal and I’m picking him here.
Julia Avila (-290) vs. Sijara Eubanks (+245)
Not much to breakdown here. Sijara Eubanks is going to be super dangerous in the first round. She has good power on the feet. She’s strong in the clinch. She can get takedowns, where she is often active and looking to advance positions. The main problem for her is her cardio. It’s what often leads to her losing fights.
Julia Avila will look to get in the clinch where she is the stronger fighter. She throws nice knees and elbows in the clinch that she uses to set-up her takedowns. Once on the ground, she applies heavy pressure, looking to get to mount. Her cardio is definitely better than Eubanks and mentally she seems to be the tougher fighter. I think Avila pulls out the decision victory here.
Kevin Croom (N/A) vs. Roosevelt Roberts (N/A)
You’ll see a common theme with the next few fights. Late replacements. Kevin Croom steps in on short notice to take on Roosevelt Roberts as his original opponent withdrew. I got Roberts here without much studying of his opponent Kevin Croom.
Roque Martinez (+255) vs. Alexander Romanov (-310)
I do not really have anything in this fight. This fight was not originally scheduled to be on this card, but the UFC added it last minute. Alexander Romanov was supposed to fight last week but his fight was canceled. In that fight, I sided with Romanov and I’m doing the same here. He’s a big, athletic heavyweight who rags doll his opponents at will. I expect him to do the same here and get a victory inside the distance.
Jalin Turner (-325) vs. Brok Weaver (+265)
Jalin Turner is stepping in here on a day’s notice as Brok Weaver’s original opponent, Frank Camacho, withdrew. Jalin Turner was supposed to fight on last week’s card but his opponent withdrew as well, so he should be in shape and ready to go for this bout.
Jalin Turner is a big puncher on the feet with legit knockout power. He’s not gonna “wow” you on the feet with volume. He is simply looking to move forward and land the big shot. He will mix in solid kicks to the body but in general, he’s looking to keep the fight on the feet and get the knockout. Brok Weaver is a brawler with incredible cardio and will. He’s often outmatched skill-wise in his fights, but he just wills himself to victories with his toughness and relentless pressure.
I’m going with Turner here, but I’m not confident at all in this pick. In fact, I think that Weaver is a live dog here and I would not fault you for taking him. He can most definitely grind out a victory here, but I’m going with a more talented and dangerous fighter in Turner.
Bryan Barberena (-255) vs. Anthony Ivy (+215)
There are a couple of interesting factors surrounding this fight that gives me pause. Bryan Barberena comes into this fight having said that he ballooned up to about 250lbs during quarantine following back surgery. This fight takes place at 170lbs. His opponent, Anthony Ivy, is taking this fight less three months after being viciously knocked out in his last fight. Neither of these factors gives me any confidence when considering aside here.
However, factors aside, I think Barberena is the clear favorite here, hence the odds. He’s just the better fighter period. On the feet, it’s a mismatch, outside of the obvious flash knockout possibility. Ivy does not like to get hit at all. He often preemptively shells up when combinations are thrown at him regardless if they are landing or not. You do not want to do that against Barberena who has heavy hands on the feet. He’s good at throwing in combinations, working the head and the body. He also likes to throw heavy low kicks. He’s beyond tough and durable. Look, I’m not saying Ivy does not have a path to victory. I think he could potentially take Barberena down to the mat and control him. Ivy is a strong grappler who looks to finish his opponents on the ground. I do see a path to victory for him, but I think Barberena gets the win here via knockout.
Justine Kish (+195) vs. Sabina Mazo (-235)
Despite what the line suggests, this should be a pretty close fight between two fighters with very similar skills. Justine Kish and Sabina Mazo are both tough, durable fighters who like to push forward in their fights. They have no problem taking damage in order to give damage as they try and get their opponent to fight in the pocket with them. Also, they both have a background in Muay Thai so they like to utilize plenty of knees and elbows in the clinch.
Even though they are very similar fighters, there is a reason Mazo is favored here. She is the rangier, taller fighter who will have the reach advantage that she can use to keep her opponent on the outside and outpoint her if needed. She is more fluid on the feet. She has better cardio and pace overall. She utilizes kicks a bit more than Kish, especially to the body. With all that being said, I got Sabina Mazo here as I think she’ll simply be able to land at a higher pace and outpoint Kish to get a decision victory.
Plays
1U Michelle Waterson (+105)
1U Ottman Azaitar (+110)
1U Roxanne Modafferi (+260)
1U Parlay Bobby Green (-260) & Brian Quarantillo (-260)
