The UFC is ending 2020 with a bang.
The UFC’s final event of 2020 goes down this Saturday night live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada with UFC Fight Night: Thompson v. Neal. You’d think that this was a PPV event with all of the great matchups on this card, but no, it’s free on ESPN+. In the main event, perennial welterweight contender, Stephen Thompson takes on one of the division’s scariest prospect in Geoff Neal. The co-main event, sees former featherweight champion, Jose Aldo, take on Marlon Vera in what should be a high paced, action packed fight. This card offers several opportunities for us to make some money so let’s take a look at the odds, pick some fights, and win ourselves some money to cap off 2020. As always the odds are provided to us by 5dimes via bestfightodds.com
Odds and Picks
Main Card – 7:00 PM ET (ESPN+)
Stephen Thompson (+105) v. Geoff Neal (-115)
Jose Aldo (-145) v. Marlon Vera (+135)
Michel Pereira Lima (-115) v. Khaos Williams (+105)
Marlon Moraes (-140) v. Rob Font (+130)
Gillian Robertson (-115) v. Taila Santos (-105)
Marcin Tybura (+110) v. Greg Hardy (-120)
Preliminary Card – 4:00 PM ET (ESPN+)
Anthony Pettis (-230) v. Alex Morono (+190)
Sijara Eubanks (-160) v. Pannie Kianzad (+140)
Deron Winn (+145) v. Antonio Arroyo (-165)
Tafon Nchukwi (-350) v. Jamie Pickett (+290)
Jimmy Flick (-150) v. Cody Durden (+130)
Christos Giagos (-325) v. Carlton Minus (+250)
Plays
Stephen Thompson (+105) v. Geoff Neal (-115)
If there is one thing to know about the UFC’s matchmakers, it’s that they like matching up and coming prospects against aging veterans who have a name. This headliner is no different as the skilled, veteran Stephen Thompson takes on the surging prospect in Geoff Neal.
Stephen Thompson has fought the who’s who in the welterweight division and has even fought for the title on two occasions. He’s a skilled striker who’s karate style often gives his opponents problems. His style is hard to figure out as he loves to utilize his foot movements, feints and fakes to draw his opponent into uncomfortable positions that he can capitalize on. He does a good job of switching stances. His striking is precise. He throws good jabs and one-two’s, with a very nice straight left that has decent power behind it. His kicks are varied as you’d expect from a karate-based fighter. He does a great job of managing distance and angling off when he lands his shots. He’s solid in the clinch. He has decent takedown defense aided by his length. He’s a beautiful striking artist when he’s at his best.
Geoff Neal will be looking to figure out the complicated style of Thompson and keep his undefeated UFC streak alive. He is a clean, fluid striker who does not use a lot of wasted movements on the feet. He’s explosive and powerful but not wild. He packs legit one punch and kick power that has knocked out previous opponents. He throws crisp jabs and good one-twos that often are followed by a vicious head kick. He’s got a good straight left and right, as well as serious power in his crosses. Offensively, he throws hard knees and elbows in the clinch. His strength allows him to control his opponents and even take them down to inflict ground and pound if need be. His takedown defense continuously improves and if the fight hits the mat he’s explosive enough to get up off the mat.
I do not think that this fight hits the mat for long. This five-round affair should be contested primarily on the feet where both fighters will have success. The question is can Geoff Neal get in on Stephen Thompson and inflict damage or will Thompson be able to control the distance, frustrate, and pick Neal apart from the outside? I believe the former is more likely to happen here. Neal’s explosive, but more importantly, calculated explosive striking should be enough to wear Thompson down and eventually get him out of there in the later rounds. I also like Neal’s strength and athletic advantages in this fight. He’s quick enough to get in on Thompson and not allow him to comfortably operate on the outside. Geoff Neal is the pick here and I think he can do it inside the distance.
1.25U Geoff Neal (-115)
Jose Aldo (-145) v. Marlon Vera (+135)
The UFC’s match-making propensities that I mentioned above are on display again here when featherweight great and UFC legend, Jose Aldo takes on the streaking Marlon Vera.
Jose Aldo is one of the greats. His featherweight reign was legendary. Now he’s dropped down to the bantamweight division where he’s still out here competing against some of the best in the division. He’s still a dangerous striker with good foot movement and timing. His counter straights and hooks are crisp and powerful. He’s always been known for his devastating leg kicks throughout his career, but until his last fight, he was not really throwing them. Seeing him throw them again in his last fight was very encouraging.
Marlon Vera is looking to continue his rise in the division and get his second big win in a row. He’s a forward pressure fighter that is well-rounded. On the feet, he throws good low kicks and his boxing has been improving. He’s throwing good combinations that ultimately allows him to get in the clinch where he is strong. He wears on guys and is relentlessly looking to land elbows and knees. He has brutal ground and pound if the fight hits the mat as well as submissions.
Jose Aldo has looked competitive in his last few fights, but he’s 0-3 in them. He’s still a dangerous striker who inflicts damage on his opponents. He is still very skilled, hence him being the favorite here, however, I think he’s staring at 0-4. Marlon Vera is relentless on the feet with his pressure. He pushes a high pace and I think that will be the difference here. I believe that Aldo’s recent cardio issues have to lead to the 0-3 record ultimately as he loses his fights in the later rounds. I believe that Vera’s pressure and continuous striking will eventually overwhelm Aldo and allow Vera to win this fight. The pick is Marlon Vera by decision.
1U Marlon Vera (+135)
Jimmy Flick (-150) v. Cody Durden (+130)
This should be an exciting fight that will showcase contrasting fight styles when Jimmy Flick takes on Cody Durden in a flyweight bout.
Jimmy Flick is a submission specialist who is beautiful to watch operate inside the cage. His transitions on the ground are seamless. He goes from submission to submission with fluidity, always attacking and looking to finish the fight. On the feet, he’s nothing to write home about. He’s a low volume striker who is strictly trying to use punches and blitzes to get in on his opponent and get the fight to the ground.
Cody Durden will try and keep the fight from getting to the ground and utilize his striking and speed on the feet but is not afraid to wrestle either. He’s a good, well-rounded fighter who can excel wherever the fight goes. On the feet, he’s a pressure fighter who does a good job of using his speed and foot movements to feint and keep his opponents guessing. He mixes up his striking well, throwing jabs and straights while mixing in body shots. He has good leg, body, and head kicks to mix in as well. In the grappling department, he’s a strong wrestler who can get the fight to the ground where he’s got good top control and ground and pound.
This fight is pretty easy to breakdown. If Durden can avoid the slick submission game of Flick, he’ll be better in all areas of this fight. Even if the fight hits the ground, he can use his top control and ground and pound to do damage and win rounds. He just needs to avoid Flick’s submissions. Easier said than done I admit. However, Durden’s strength and takedown defense should allow him to keep this fight standing where he can piece up Flick and win this fight. The pick is Durden.
1U Cody Durden (+130)
Odds and Ends
- Khaos Williams (+105) is an obvious live dog. One clean shot and Pereira (-115) might be out cold.
- Marlon Moraes (-140) is a solid bet at that price. Rob Font (+130) seems to falter against top competition and Moraes is exactly that.
- As long as Taila Santos (-105) avoids the takedown and submission, she’s better than Gillian Robertson (-115) everywhere. She’s a solid underdog play.
- Anthony Pettis (-230) should outclass Alex Morono (+190) and is a good “big favorite” bet as the entertaining UFC vet should be highly motivated to get a win here as free agency looms.
