UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic takes place this Saturday night, live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card sees former title contender Anthony Smith take on the much-hyped Aleksander Rakic in a light heavyweight affair. This fight means so much more now than it did when it was originally booked. With Jon Jones moving up to the heavyweight division and relinquishing his belt, the winner here could get the next title shot. Let’s take a look at the odds surrounding this card, pick some fights, and win money. As always the odds are provided by 5dimes via bestfightsodds.com.
Please note that my official plays are at the end of the article but there are always betting angles that I present in my individual fight breakdowns that may help you make your own picks and win money.
Odds
Anthony Smith (+230) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (-250)
Robbie Lawler (+220) vs. Neil Magny (-240)
Ji Yeon Kim (+255) vs. Alexa Grasso (-280)
Ricardo Lamas (-290) vs. Bill Algeo (+260)
Magomed Ankalaev (-290) v. Ion Cutelaba (+260)
Maki Pitolo (+122) vs. Impa Kasanganay (-132)
Alessio Di Chirico (-115) vs. Zak Cummings (+105)
Alex Caceres (-190) vs. Austin Springer (+175)
Sean Brady (-410) vs. Christian Aguilera (+365)
Polyana Viana (+120) vs. Emily Whitmire (-130)
Mallory Martin (-295) vs. Hannah Cifers (+265)
Preview
Anthony Smith (+230) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (-250)
Anthony Smith is the seasoned fighter here. He’s fought the who’s who of the division and is ready to get back to a title shot. Aleksandar Rakic is the younger, much-hyped fighter looking to use Smith’s name as a springboard to a title shot.
Rakic’s hype is legit. He’s a very talented striker who blends attacks on the feet really well. He mixes in powerful punches with heavy leg kicks. Offensively, he also has a solid wrestling attack. His opponent, Smith, has power in his hands. He’s an underrated grappler who has a diverse array of strikes in clinch highlighted by his elbows. Smith is also very tough and durable.
I’m riding with Rakic here for several reasons. Rakic will be the fighter producing more volume on the feet. Smith is often a slow starter and in a three-round fight, that is a recipe for a loss against the more active Rakic. Not to mention, Smith is coming off a brutal beating at the hands of Glover Teixeira two months ago. Should he be taking this fight? I don’t think so. Finally, if you look at Smith’s wins on his “rise,” they’re mediocre. They’re against fighters who retired after his win or one’s that should retire. I can understand and I’m not mad anyone that takes a shot on the dog here given his resume and toughness, but I got Rakic.
I think the better way to attack this fight from a betting perspective is the length of the fight. Smith is tough and durable. Rakic has a good chin, in addition to movement. Given that this is a three-round fight, with what I said above, I believe it goes the distance.
Robbie Lawler (+220) vs. Neil Magny (-240)
Robbie Lawler enters this contest on short notice against the surging Neil Magny. These two fighters are trending in opposite directions. Robbie is trying to get his groove back, while Magny is looking to continue his resurgence in the welterweight division.
I got Magny here. He will use his length to stay on the outside and away from Lawler’s winging power punches. He will use his grappling to keep Lawler up against the cage and tire him out. Lawler will look to fight in bursts. He’ll look to take Magny out early. If he doesn’t I think he loses this fight. Lawler’s cardio has really taken a hit recently and his inactivity at the very least does not help him win rounds in the judges eyes. Magny always stays busy. This is a recipe for a decision victory for Magny.
Ji Yeon Kim (+255) vs. Alexa Grasso (-280)
This has fight of the night written all over it. Both of these fighters will look to stand and trade with each other until one falls. The majority of women’s fights go to decision so I would not be surprised if this one does, but I think Grasso gets this done inside the distance. She is the better and more powerful striker with the grappling advantage in her back pocket too.
Ricardo Lamas (-290) vs. Bill Algeo (+260)
Ricardo Lamas is the much better and well-rounded fighter here. Bill Algeo is stepping in on short notice. Ricardo Lamas should win this fight, however, we don’t know if his chin is still there after taking some brutal knockouts recently. Algeo will look to use his length to keep Lamas at a distance and outpoint him with his kicks. He’s a creative striker but susceptible to getting hit as he keeps his hands down. Listen, I’m taking Algeo here in an upset. It’s a gut feeling. I think he is able to utilize his kicking and solid grappling to outpoint Lamas to decision victory. I do not suggest you follow me off the cliff.
Magomed Ankalaev (-290) v. Ion Cutelaba (+260)
Their first fight ended in controversy as Cutelaba got cute, and tried to bait Ankalaev into thinking he was really hurt. In the end, it wasn’t Ankalaev that fell for it, but the ref who waived the fight off. Naturally, it was a bad decision and here we are with the rematch.
However, the result does not change for me. Ankalaev is the much better fighter and the dark horse of the light heavyweight division. This guy has “future champ” written all over him. I believe that he stops Cutelaba for a second time but this time legitimately. Cutelaba has a punchers chance to cash your ticket if you bet on him as he has serious knockout power. He will look to push forward and take Ankalaev out in the first round. He might be able to do, but I think Ankalaev survives the onslaught and gets a knockout himself.
Maki Pitolo (+122) vs. Impa Kasanganay (-132)
Maki Pitolo is coming in on short notice and off a submission loss in his last fight. Impa Kasanganay is coming off a win in the Dana White’s Contender Series a couple of weeks ago. So both fighters are pretty fresh and ready to advance their careers.
Kasanganay is a smart fighter who is well rounded. He has good jabs, leg kicks, and grappling. The one thing that should be highlighted is his fight IQ. He’s very composed and knows what he needs to do to get the victory. He does not deviate from the plan regardless of what his opponent is doing. Pitolo, on the other hand, often makes head scratching decisions in his fights. He loses fights that he’s winning because of a mental lapse. He’s a power puncher that can take anyone out but the longer the fight goes on, the more likely he makes a mistake.
I got Kasanganay here. Pitolo probably wins the first round, but makes a mistake that ultimately leads to his demise. I’m not mad if you take Pitolo here as he’s got serious knock power and pretty solid wrestling. He was winning his last fight before making a stupid decision and getting submitted.
Alessio Di Chirico (-115) vs. Zak Cummings (+105)
This is a tough fight to call. Both guys are low volume fighters but I don’t think you can get lower than Cummings. Di Chirico should be able to be have a higher volume output in this fight. Cummings is definitely the tougher and more durable fighter with the better resume.
I anticipate a sloppy brawl here. I got Di Chirico but there are definitely no betting angles here.
Alex Caceres (-190) vs. Austin Springer (+175)
Alex Caceres is on a two-fight win steak and is looking to make it three. Austin Springer is a later replacement looking to prove he deserves to be in the UFC. Beating Caceres will help prove he does, however, he doesn’t. Alex Caceres gets the win here. No betting angle.
Sean Brady (-410) vs. Christian Aguilera (+365)
This one is simple. Sean Brady should most definitely win this fight. He’s the better all-around fighter that is competent on the feet but ultimately wants to take the fight to the ground. He uses his striking to set-up his wrestling entries. Christian Aguilera looks to get hot opponents out of there in the first round. He’s got heavy hands but can handle his own in the wrestling department.
Brady wins this fight because outside of the power on the feet, he does everything better than Aguilera. He takes Aguilera down and controls him throughout the fight on his way to a decision victory. The fight going to a decision or Brady winning via decision is something worth the look.
Polyana Viana (+120) vs. Emily Whitmire (-130)
This is a coin flip fight. On the feet, Emily Whitmire is clearly the better fighter. She has good jabs. She also throws decent body and push kicks that keep her opponents off balance. Similarly, Polyana Viana likes to use her kicks to rack up points against her opponents. Outside of that, her stand-up game is weak. She’d rather take this fight to the ground. However, I do not think she gets it there. I got Whitmire here. No betting angles.
Mallory Martin (-295) vs. Hannah Cifers (+265)
Hannah Cifers may be fighting for her UFC job as she’s lost three fights in a row. Mallory Martin is looking to get back in the win column after her last loss halted a five-fight win streak.
I got Martin here. She can do enough on the feet to get the win. Cifers is strong and big for the division but her skills are mediocre especially on the feet. Martin is a good grappler that should be able to deal with Cifers’ straight and size. No betting angles.
Official Plays
2U Rakic/Smith Goes The Distance (+140)
1.5U Magny Wins By Decision (-130)
