The UFC is back at the UFC Apex this Saturday night with a sneaky good card live from Las Vegas, Nevada. It is headlined by a very important fight for the light-heavyweight division as the number one ranked, Thiago Santos, takes on the number three ranked, Glover Teixeira. The winner will instantly be next in line for the title shot after Isreal Adesanya takes on the current champ, Jan Blachowicz. In the co-main, top heavyweight prospect, Tanner Boser takes on former UFC champion, Andrei Arlovski in a heavyweight fight that’s sure to bring about fireworks. With all that being said, let’s take a look at the odds, pick some fights, and win ourselves some money. Per usual, the odds are presented to us by 5dimes via bestfightodds.com.
Odds and Picks
Main Card – 10:00 PM ET
Thiago Santos (-225) vs. Glover Teixeira (+205)
Andrei Arlovski (+275) vs. Tanner Boser (-305)
Raoni Barcelos (-355) vs. Khalid Taha (+320)
Ian Heinisch (+100) vs. Brendan Allen (-110)
Claudia Gadelha (+145) vs. Yan Xiaonan (-150)
Preliminary Card – 7:00 PM ET
Trevin Giles (+105) vs. Bevon Lewis (-115)
Giga Chikadze (-750) vs. Jamey Simmons (+600)
Alexander Romanov (-430) vs. Marcos Rogerio De Lima (+380)
Darren Elkins (-235) vs. Luiz Garagorri (+215)
Max Griffin (-130) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+120)
Gustavo Lopez (-120) vs. Anthony Birchak (+100)
Plays
Ian Heinisch (+100) vs. Brendan Allen (-110)
One hell of a fight goes down in the middleweight division when the surging prospect, Brendan Allen, takes on Ian Heinisch, who is coming off an impressive TKO victory in his last fight.
Allen is one of the UFC’s better prospects in the organization. He’s an aggressive fighter who is well-rounded but ultimately wants to take his fights to the ground. On the feet, he likes to push forward, looking to land heavy shots. He’s got decent jabs and hooks. He mixes in good body shots in exchanges as well. Where he excels though, is in the grappling department. He does a great job of pushing his opponent up against the cage where he has excellent body locks and knees to the body. In the clinch, he looks to ultimately get the fight to the ground where he’s a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. He looks to take his opponent’s back and lock in rear naked chokes, but submissions aren’t his only path to victory on the ground. He’s an aggressive ground and pound fighter who continuously looks to pass the guard of his opponent.
Heinisch will not be intimated by Allen’s grappling prowess as he’s done well against grapplers in the past. He’s a good wrestler who can get takedowns himself and stop takedowns against him pretty well. He’s strong in the clinch and has good BJJ if the fight hits the mat, but he will ultimately look to keep the feet on the feet. He should have the advantage there as he’s the more fluid fighter. He’s got good power. He throws big overhand punches and solid hooks to the head and body. He also throws a lot of varied kicks. He’s not afraid to get into a brawl on the feet.
The odds are spot on here as this will be a close fight. Heinisch is a well-rounded fighter who has been in the UFC longer than Allen and has fought the tougher competition to this point. However, Allen is a legit prospect who continues to get better and better each time out. He’s a dog. He’s strong, aggressive, durable, and has good cardio. He’s going to continuously push forward looking to get Heinisch out of there early. If he doesn’t, I still think he does enough to get a close decision victory here, if not a submission early. Normally, I would stay away from fights like this, but Allen opened as a small favorite earlier in the week and the line is now essentially a pick’em. I’m going with the initial odds and taking the favorite at an enticing line looking for him to continue on his upward trajectory. The pick is Allen.
1.25U Brendan Allen
Claudia Gadelha (+145) vs. Yan Xiaonan (-150)
A very important fight goes down in the strawweight division when Yan Xiaonan, undefeated in the UFC, takes on the surging, former title contender, Claudia Gadelha. The winner will be all but guaranteed the next title shot after Weili Zhang takes on Rose Namajunas for the title.
Xiaonan has won five fights in a row and will look to continue her dominance in the strawweight division as she will be taking on her toughest test to date. She is a striker who has great movement and angling on the feet. She is fast and does a good job of closing distance well. As a powerful striker, she throws a nice left hook, straight hook combination. Her front, head, and oblique kicks are effective as well. She will look to keep the fight on the feet and pick Gadelha apart.
Gadelha is an underrated striker herself. She’s powerful on the feet and has good elbows and uppercuts in the pocket. She will often use her striking to get in on her opponent and get them in the clinch. She does a good job of controlling and eventually taking her opponent down. On top, she’s got a heavy top game and will look to pass the guard. She’s got decent ground and pound but will look to threaten submissions.
Like the Allen/Heinisch fight, this should be a pretty close fight with a top UFC prospect looking to continue their upward trajectory over their toughest test to date. Gadelha is the perfect test for Xiaonan as Xiaonan has struggled with pressure fighters and grapplers in the past. I, however, believe that this is one pressure fighter and grappler that she will be able to shine against. Gadelha often gasses in her fights, especially when she is mixing in her grappling skills. This will ultimately keep the fight standing for much of the fight. Gadelha likes to strike and will have no problem testing herself against Xiaonan, but Xiaonan is just better in that department. She is a proficient striker that will be able to keep Gadelha at range and pick her apart with big shots. She may be taken down once or twice in this fight, but I think she’ll be able to weather the storm and ultimately outpoint Gadelha throughout this fight en route to a decision victory. The pick is Xiaonan.
1.5U Xiaonan
Odds And Ends
- Teixeira is a live dog (+205) and I will probably end up sprinkling a half unit on him as he’s got multiple paths to victory, mainly via submission.
- Boser, Barcelos, Chikadze, and Romanov are great parlay pieces for plus money.
- Boser, Barcelos, Chikadze, and Romanov all should win their fights inside the distance. Playing inside the distance on these big favorites will offer better odds.
