The UFC is back this Saturday night with UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai, live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Perennial heavyweight contender Alistair Overeem takes on, surging, Augusto Sakai in the main event. A win here will all but guarantee a top-5 ranking for the winner and put them in the title picture mix at heavyweight. Let’s take a look at the odds surrounding this card, pick some fights, and win some money. As always, the odds are provided by 5dimes via bestfightodds.com.
Please note that my official plays are at the end of the article but there are always betting angles that I present in my individual fight breakdowns that may help you make your own picks and win some money.
Odds
Alistair Overeem (-150) vs. Augusto Sakai (+140)
Ovince St. Preux (+120) vs. Alonzo Menifield (-130)
Michel Pereira (-112) vs. Zelim Imadaev (+102)
Brian Kelleher (-220) vs. Kevin Natividad (+200)
Thiago Moises (-145) vs. Jalin Turner (+135)
Bartosz Fabinski (-157) vs. Andre Muniz (+147)
Montana De La Rosa (+155) vs. Viviane Araujo (-175)
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+125) vs. Alexander Romanov (-145)
Cole Smith (+185) vs. Hunter Azure (-225)
Preview
Alistair Overeem (-150) vs. Augusto Sakai (+140)
As I said off the top, this fight is a relatively big fight in the heavyweight division. The winner here will get a top-5 ranking and be in that title picture mix. Alistair Overeem comes into this fight with a 3-1 record since his move to Elevation Fight Team. Meanwhile, Augusto Sakai comes into this one with no blemishes on his record.
Overeem is obviously the more seasoned fighter here with a long and impressive resume. The man will go down as one of the greatest heavyweights of all-time. He’s long in the tooth but shows a desire and hunger for growth after each fight. We’ve seen this with his recent move to Elevation Fight Team, where he’s implemented a more patient fighting approach as well as a newfound focus on wrestling.
Augusto Sakai is the undefeated UFC “prospect” looking to get a big win here over a legend and cement himself in the heavyweight division. Sakai is a good Muay Thai fighter on the feet. He has good forward pressure and is very durable. He likes to throw kicks and use his length to keep his opponents at a range where he can score at will on the judge’s scorecards. Alistair is Alistair outside of the newfound patience and wrestling attacks. He’s a good grappler with great knees inside the clinch. He has legit power on the feet but likes to keep his opponent at a distance with heavy kicks and nice jab. He also has a phenomenal ground pound game.
For me, I do not think Overeem is close to being done in this division. He’s looked really good since his move to Colorado. He’s more patient and focused on doing what he needs to do to get the victory. I love that he’s added wrestling to his game as he’s always been a devastating ground and pound fighter. There is always the chance of Sakai landing a big shot and turning Overeem’s lights out. It is a heavyweight fight and it is Overeem’s chin we’re talking about here. However, I just think Overeem is better in all aspects of the game than Sakai. I think he is quicker and sharper on the feet. On the ground, we have not really seen Sakai tested, but I think Overeem can win the fight if it goes there as well. Either way at these odds, I can not pass up a play on Overeem here. He should be closer to a -200 favorite and he’s coming in at -150. I think there’s good value on the better overall fighter here.
Ovince St. Preux (+120) vs. Alonzo Menifield (-130)
I broke this fight down a couple of weeks ago as these two fighters were scheduled to fight before St. Preux tested positive for Covid-19. I’ll quickly brush over a few things here, as my previous breakdown is still available, but has slightly changed as a result of this rebooking.
Menifield has serious knockout power on the feet but struggles in the wrestling department. He also has a propensity to gas later in his fights. St. Preux has knockout power as well but more importantly, he can grapple and wrestle. This often leads to him pulling off his patent “Von Preux” choke (aka Von Flue choke). He too has gas tank issues but makes up for it with his durability as he rarely gets finished in his fights.
Here’s what’s changed in my mind as I originally picked OSP in the first booking. OSP tested positive for Covid-19 so I’m not sure how much training he did or didn’t get done in these two weeks. But more importantly, and the reason I’m picking Menifield here, is that OSP had to cut weight twice in two weeks. Obviously both of them did this, but the difference here is that Menifield is the fitter fighter and also not changing weight classes. OSP fought the majority of his career at light heavyweight, then he jumped up to heavyweight for one fight before dropping back down to light heavyweight for this fight. I do not like the bouncing between the weight classes in combination with having to cut weight twice in two weeks. Give me Menifield here via knockout.
Michel Pereira (-112) vs. Zelim Imadaev (+102)
This could easily be the fight of the night as both fighters throw wild strikes on the feet and keep up a relentless pace.
Michel Pereira is a wild man who is very unpredictable. He’ll back-flip on to his grounded opponent, throw a wild strike while jumping off of the cage, and even dance in between strikes. You never know what you’re going to see when Pereira enters the cage. Zelim Imadaev is a bit wild as well. He throws a multitude of strikes from all angles. He’s all-in when attacking on the feet with heavy winging punches.
Many of Pereira’s opponents get overwhelmed by his vast array of wild strikes. They almost become a spectator waiting for the next wild strike to come. Imadaev is not that guy. He’s a serious guy who is going to come forward and go for the kill. He has the advantage in the grappling department and I think this will be his path to victory. I think he’ll be able to handle Pereira’s striking by moving forward and pressuring him. Pereira does not do well when his opponent is pressuring him. Ultimately, though I think he’s able to grapple and take Pereira down which will help him win rounds and get the victory. He’s not the best at holding his opponents down, but again I think he does enough to score points with those takedowns. This is a close fight so I do not fault you for taking either fighter, but the pick for me is Imadaev.
Brian Kelleher (-220) vs. Kevin Natividad (+200)
Brian Kelleher’s been very busy during this pandemic as this is his third fight in four months. For Kevin Natividad, this will be his UFC debut.
You know what to expect from Kelleher at this point, he’s a tough, durable fighter that will continue to move forward and put the pressure on his opponents. He’s an all-around solid fighter no matter where the fight takes place but does have legit knockout power.
Natividad is an athletic boxer with a solid wrestling base. He cuts angles really well on the feet. He throws nice combinations down the middle and even mixes in good body shots. He can grapple. He’s strong in the clinch but can get taken down as well.
Simply put, I think Natividad can have success on the feet early but eventually, Kelleher’s relentless pace and the gas tank will allow him to take over this fight. I see Kelleher winning a decision here, but a late-round finish would not surprise me either.
Thiago Moises (-145) vs. Jalin Turner (+135)
I do not have much here. Thiago Moises is explosive on the feet but has a relatively low output. He is elite on the ground and will try and utilize that position in this fight. Jalin Turner is a big and powerful striker who wants to keep the fight standing. Like his opponent, he does not throw much volume on the feet. He’s hittable and has been finished before as a result.
If the fight goes to the ground, Moises should get a submission victory as Turner is not good on the mat. However, if Turner can avoid being taken down or remaining on the mat for a long period of time, I believe he can do enough on the feet to get the victory. Moises just has not impressed in the UFC at all. Turner should be able to hurt Moises on the feet and maybe even knock him out here. He’ll look to utilize his long reach to keep Moises at distance and eventually land the big shot. Turner is the pick here.
Bartosz Fabinski (-157) vs. Andre Muniz (+147)
This should be an interesting stylistic matchup. Bartosz Fabinski is coming into this fight after a long lay off but a much better resume. Andre Muniz is coming in on a five-fight winning streak.
Fabinski is a dominant grappler who overwhelms the majority of his opponents with his relentless style. He’s a grinder who is not looking to get the finish, rather, he’s looking to dominant you with his relenting pressure and top control. Muniz is a very good BJJ practitioner who possess very good sweeps and submissions. He’s aggressive when engaging on the feet which sometimes leads to him taking damage.
However, Muniz will not have to worry about that, as his opponent has no intention of making this a striking battle. Fabianski will look to take this to the mat immediately, but at what cost? Muniz is a proficient BJJ practitioner who can most definitely submit the aggressive Fabinski here. When the fight does take place on the feet, Muniz has an advantage in the striking department. He has power and could turn Fabinski’s lights out. Fabinski is the much stronger fighter and could easily control Muniz throughout the fight en route to a gritty decision victory here, but I think Muniz pulls off the sub here. At dog money too, I think Muniz is very live and he’s my pick in this fight.
Montana De La Rosa (+155) vs. Viviane Araujo (-175)
Montana De La Rosa is looking to make it two wins in a row versus Viviane Araujo who is looking to get back into the win column after her last loss.
This one is pretty simple. De La Rosa is going to want to grapple here, where she often finds success. She is not good on her feet as she’s very stiff and hittable. On the ground, she’s good at utilizing her BJJ to get victories. She loves to take her opponent’s back and choke them out. Her opponent, Araujo, is a well-rounded fighter who will want to keep this one standing. She’s athletic and has good movement on the feet. She’s fast and throws sharp and powerful strikes. She’s also a good grappler. Her volume and movement on the feet allow her to win fights, but the cardio often makes it tough.
De La Rosa has the better resume here as she’s fought some legit UFC talent in the past. She’s coming off arguably the most complete win in her last bout so she is definitely evolving and getting better as a fighter. It will not be enough here though. Araujo should dominate this fight on the feet. Her strength and grappling should keep her from getting taken and, or held down on the mat. Araujo is the pick here. She will dominate the fight on the feet and probably walk away with a KO/TKO victory here.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+125) vs. Alexander Romanov (-145)
This is a coin flip fight in the heavyweight division. Marcos Rogerio de Lima is looking to break his current streak of alternating wins and losses. While Alexander Romanov is finally making his UFC debut after several bout cancellations.
De Lima has a noticeable advantage on the feet here. He throws good kicks. He has legit power in his hands that he uses to get his opponents out of there early. He’s also the more seasoned fighter with a better resume. Romanov, on the other hand, is the athletic newcomer who likes to utilize his grappling to secure victories.
Romanov is very green when it comes to his striking and is very hittable. He often rushes his opponents with his hands down so that he can get in on his opponent. When in on his opponent he uses his grappling to ragdoll them. De Lima has struggled against fighters like Romanov. He’s been routinely taken down and dominated by other strong grapplers. If Romanov can avoid the big punch, he should easily grapple de Lima in route to a dominating victory. You’ll sweat trying to cash this ticket, but I think Romanov is worth a play here with a clear path to victory.
Cole Smith (+185) vs. Hunter Azure (-225)
Both of these fighters are coming off their first professional loss and are looking to get back in the win column. Cole Smith’s plan of attack is simple. He wants to pressure you up against the cage, take your back, and submit you. Hunter Azure, on the other hand, wants to keep the fight on the feet where he can utilize his improved striking skills.
Both of these fighters are green. They are still evolving as fighters. Azure is the better striker here with heavier hands versus a fighter that at this point is pretty one dimensional. If Azure can win the scrambles and avoid being taken down, he gets the win here. He’ll score more on the feet and may even finish his opponent. Azure is the pick here.
Official Plays
2U on Alistar Overeem (-150)
1U on Andre Muniz (+147)
1.5U Alexander Romanov (-145)
