UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik Betting Breakdown & Picks
The UFC is back this Saturday with UFC Vegas 6 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card is headlined by an entertaining heavyweight fight between Derrick Lewis and Aleksei Oleinik. The co-main event sees the former middleweight champion, Chris Weidman, return to the middleweight division to take on Omari Akhmedov. The twelve fight card provides us with some nice betting angles to take advantage of. First, let’s take a look at the odds for this card. As always, the odds are via bestfightodds.com (5dimes).
Derrick Lewis (-185) vs. Aleksei Oleinik (+170)
Omari Akhmedov (+122) vs. Chris Weidman (-132)
Maki Pitolo (+132) vs. Darren Stewart (-142)
Yana Kunitskaya (-178) vs. Julija Storliarenko (+167)
Beneil Dariush (-190) vs. Scott Holtzman (+175)
Tim Means (+127) vs. Laureano Staropoli (-137)
Kevin Holland (-430) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+380)
Nasrat Haqparast (-235) vs. Alexander Munoz (+215)
Andrew Sanchez (+127) vs. Wellington Turman (-137)
Gavin Tucker (-115) vs. Justin Jaynes (+105)
Youssef Zalal (-450) vs. Peter Barrett (+400)
Irwin Rivera (-178) vs. Ali Alqaisi (+167)
Omari Akhmedov (+122) vs. Chris Weidman (-132)
Chris Weidman comes into this fight as the favorite with one win in his last six UFC appearances. Five of his last six UFC bouts have resulted in him being knocked out. Omari Akhmedov comes into this fight unbeaten in his last six UFC appearances. Five of his last six UFC bouts have resulted in him winning via decision.
This is an interesting line but not surprising given the two fighters competing. Chris Weidman is a fan favorite, former MW champion, and the big named fighter while Omari Akhmedov is the relatively quiet, unknown fighter. The public is all over Weidman as he was once a +130 underdog but now a -132 favorite.
Betting, and ultimately winning money, is not a popularity contest. It is more about what you’ve done for me lately rather than what you’ve done for me overall; and lately these fighters have been trending in opposite directions. Weidman’s weight cut to middleweight has been tougher on him in recent years.
He recently spoke with James Lynch about the weight cutting issues he’s had leading up to this particular fight. That’s not good for a fighter that has a propensity for getting knocked out.
Weidman will have a five-inch reach advantage and is still a capable grappler. On the feet, he’s a solid striker who often uses his jab to transition into his grappling game. Akhmedov is a good striker with solid takedown defense. He often likes to throw two-punch combinations whether he’s leading or countering in the exchanges.
He often lulls his opponents into his fight which is a slower, methodical pace that allows him to output his opponent to a decision victory. Simply put, I believe that Weidman is a shell of himself and should not be the betting favorite. I believe this fight is more about the UFC giving Akhmedov a former champion to build his name off of as opposed to giving Weidman an “easy fight” to get himself back in the win column.
I expect Akhmedov to stop Weidman’s early takedown attempts and ultimately lull him into a methodical striking matchup that will lead to Akhmedov getting his hand raised. I would not be surprised to see Akhmedov’s two-punch combinations knock Weidman out but I do think this fight will go the distance and ultimately in Akhmedov’s favor. This is my favorite play of the night.
Maki Pitolo (+132) vs. Darren Stewart (-142)
This matchup is a simple one for me. You have Darren Stewart coming in as the favorite with one-punch knockout power against the more well-rounded fighter in Maki Pitolo. Stewart’s power is no joke. Stewart wants to take your head off with one swing and he can do it too. Pitolo is no slouch either when it comes to power. They do not call him “Coconut Bombz” for nothing. Pitolo has some serious power in his hands but throws them in combinations. He varies his strikes to the head and body by switching up the speed and power of the punches.
Stewart cuts a lot of weight to make middleweight and it often shows in his fights. He has a tendency of gassing out especially if he attacks his opponent early with a barrage of power shots and doesn’t get them out of there. Pitolo is no stranger to weight cutting issues himself. He endured some brutal weight cuts in order to fight at welterweight and it showed in the cage. At welterweight, he was slow and less fluid on the feet in striking exchanges. He’s now moved up to middleweight where he’s seen some good results. He’s quicker and more fluid in the cage. He’s also utilized his wrestling more and I believe that this is his path to victory.
Stewart does not like to wrestle and has trouble stopping takedowns. Stewart throws bombs and I believe that if and when they connect, Pitolo will smartly use his wrestling to get out of danger and take Stewart to the mat. If the fight is contested on the feet, Pitolo possesses more than enough power and skills to be successful there as well. Overall, Pitolo is the better all-around fighter. As long as he avoids the knockout shot from Stewart, I believe he gets the job done.
My Official Plays:
1 unit on Omari Akhmedov (+122)
1 unit on Maki Pitolo (+132)
Last But Not Least
Derrick Lewis either gets the knockout (-140) victory or Aleksei Oleinik gets the submission (+205) victory. Personally, I think Lewis gets the job done here, but regardless of which fighter you’re on, inside the distance at those lines are the way to go. I do not see this fight going the distance.
I like Beneil Dariush (-190) to win his fight against Scott Holtzman (+175), however, I am weary of laying that number. Dariush is so skilled and I love watching him compete. He’s on a four-fight win streak and he’s the better fighter in this matchup. However, he often gets rocked in his fights, whether he wins or loses. Scott Holtzman is definitely a game opponent and should not be slept on. I believe that Dariush wins and I’m ok with you laying the big number but understand it might be an emotional rollercoaster throughout the fight.
Laureano Staropoli (-137) v. Tim Means (+127) is on my avoid list given the volatility of this matchup. I would not be surprised if Means utilizes his height and length to get the victory here on the feet. On the other hand, I would not be surprised if Staropoli knocks Means out. I lean more with the latter. Means often throw caution to the wind defensively on the feet and his chin, at this point in his career, is almost non-existent. I lean Staropoli in this matchup.
Don’t be surprised if Julija Storliarenko (+167) pulls the upset and gets an armbar submission victory over Yana Kunitskaya (-178).
