The UFC is back this Saturday night with a UFC Fight Night live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event features two fighters, looking to solidify their place at the top of the middleweight division, as Jack Hermansson takes on Marvin Vettori. In the co-main event, rising prospect Jamahal Hill looks to get a statement win over the tough and veteran-ladened Ovince St. Preux in a light heavyweight bout. This eleven fight card offers us some opportunities to win some money so without further ado, let’s take a look at the odds for this card. As always, the odds are provided to us by 5dimes via bestfightodds.com.
Odds and Picks
Main Card – 10:00 PM ET
Jack Hermansson (+120) v. Marvin Vettori (-140)
Ovince Saint Preux (+150) v. Jamahal Hill (-170)
Gabriel Benitez (-235) v. Justin Jaynes (+195)
Montana De La Rosa (+190) v. Taila Santos (-230)
Roman Dolidze (-200) v. John Allan (+170)
Nate Landwehr (+465) v. Movsar Evloev (-630)
Preliminary Card – 7:00 PM ET
Louis Smolka (-135) v. Jose Quinonez (+115)
Matt Wiman (+325) v. Jordan Leavitt (-400)
Jimmy Flick (-165) v. Cody Durden (+145)
Ilia Topuria (-250) v. Damon Jackson (+210)
Gian Villante (-190) v. Jake Collier (+165)
Plays
Jack Hermansson (+120) v. Marvin Vettori (-140)
This is a very important fight for both of these guys. Jack Hermansson is looking to solidify himself at the top of the middleweight division while Marvin Vettori is looking to crack the top ten and continue on his recent surge in the division.
Marvin Vettori offers up a stiff challenge for Jack Hermansson. He’s a well-rounded fighter who’s not a slouch when it comes to the grappling department, somewhere that Hermansson excels. Vettori likes to move forward and put pressure on his opponents. He throws a decent volume of strikes on the feet with some nice combinations when he gets in range. Vettori does not have the biggest power but still has the ability to hurt his opponent if he lands flush. Defensively, he has decent head movement and pulls counters. He’s a strong grappler who likes to get in the clinch and get his opponent to the ground. On top he looks to advance positions, looking to land ground and pound.
Hermansson is no stranger to ground and pound as that is a staple of his game against his opponents. He is a strong and relentless grappler who is always looking for the finish once the feet gets to the ground. He consistently looks to pass the guard of his opponent and has very good positional awareness on the ground. He’s a grinder who does a good job of keeping his opponents on the ground. On the feet, he’s got good feet movement. He’ll be the quicker fighter on the fight here. He’s a solid striker who utilizes leg kicks to attack his opponent’s legs and body. He’ll use his jab too, but often that is to distract his opponent so that he can get in on them for a takedown.
This is really close matchup and normally I’d stay away from a fight like this and just watch and enjoy it, but I love the value on Hermansson here. He’s easily fought the tougher competition in his career. He’s been in several five-round main events and won’t wilt under the pressure or cardio obligations needed for a five-round main event. Matchup wise, I believe he has more paths to victory. He’s shown that he can get into striking wars on the feet and win those exchanges. However, I believe that his relentless grappling and takedown game will eventually overwhelm Vettori and be his path to victory. As long as Hermansson avoids a knee or uppercut on his takedown entries he’ll do enough to win rounds, if not, get the outright submission. The pick is Hermansson.
1U Jack Hermansson (+120)
Jimmy Flick (-165) v. Cody Durden (+145)
This should be an exciting fight that will showcase contrasting fight styles when Jimmy Flick takes on Cody Durden in a flyweight bout.
Jimmy Flick is a submission specialist who is beautiful to watch operate inside the cage. His transitions on the ground are seamless. He goes from submission to submission with fluidity, always attacking and looking to finish the fight. On the feet, he’s nothing to write home about. He’s a low volume striker who is strictly trying to use punches and blitzes to get in on his opponent and get the fight to the ground.
Cody Durden will try and keep the fight from getting to the ground and utilize his striking and speed on the feet but is not afraid to wrestle either. He’s a good, well-rounded fighter who can excel wherever the fight goes. On the feet, he’s a pressure fighter who does a good job of using his speed and foot movements to feint and keep his opponents guessing. He mixes up his striking well, throwing jabs and straights while mixing in body shots. He has good leg, body, and head kicks to mix in as well. In the grappling department, he’s a strong wrestler who can get the fight to the ground where he’s got good top control and ground and pound.
This fight is pretty easy to breakdown. If Durden can avoid the slick submission game of Flick, he’ll be better in all areas of this fight. Even if the fight hits the ground, he can use his top control and ground and pound to do damage and win rounds. He just needs to avoid Flick’s submissions. Easier said than done I admit. However, Durden’s strength and takedown defense should allow him to keep this fight standing where he can piece up Flick and win this fight. The pick is Durden.
1U Cody Durden (+145)
Odds and Ends
- Preux struggled with his weight cut and ultimately decided to just stop cutting weight. I liked Hill (-170) before this revelation, but I like him even more now.
- Santos (-230) should absolutely outclass De La Rosa and is not a bad parlay piece.
- Dolidze (-200) is not a bad straight play.
- Quinonez (+115) is definitely a live dog and worth a play.
- Topuria (-250) should absolutely outclass Jackson and is not a bad parlay piece.
- Topuria (-250) is not a bad straight play. I really like this kid and his future.
Please note that I’m still revamping my betting articles. I plan on giving y’all a lot more useful content and statistical information in the future to help you make your bets. I, ultimately, want this article to be a one-stop-shop for all of your betting needs. I appreciate all of the feedback I’ve gotten thus far. Good luck on your plays this weekend and remember to always bet responsibly.
