The highly anticipated UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley takes places this Saturday night live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Colby Covington and Tyron Woodley finally meet after years of back and forth banter and bad blood. This is a big fight, not only for the two fighters, but for the entire welterweight division. Let’s take a look at the odds, pick some fights, and win ourselves some money. As always, the odds come from 5dimes via bestfightodds.com.
Please note that my official plays are at the end of the article, but there are always betting angles that I present in my individual fight breakdowns that may help you make your own picks and win some money.
Odds
Colby Covington (-310) vs. Tyron Woodley (+280)
Donald Cerrone (+125) vs. Niko Price (-135)
Khamzat Chimaev (-410) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+365)
Johnny Walker (-120) vs. Ryan Spann (+110)
Mackenzie Dern (-160) vs. Randa Markos (+150)
Kevin Holland (-260) vs. Darren Stewart (+240)
Jordan Espinosa (-103) vs. David Dvorak (-107)
Mirsad Bektic (-335) vs. Damon Jackson (+305)
Mayra Bueno Silva (-260) vs. Mara Romero Borella (+240)
Jessica-Rose Clark (-210) vs. Sarah Alpar (+190)
Darrick Minner (+280) vs. TJ Laramie (-310)
Journey Newson (-125) vs. Randy Costa (+115)
Andre Ewell (-225) vs. Irwin Rivera (+205)
Tyson Nam (-185) vs. Jerome Rivera (+170)
Preview
Colby Covington (-310) vs. Tyron Woodley (+280)
This fight is years in the making. There is a lot of bad blood here and both fighters come into this fight max motivated to get the victory and shut their opponent up. Both fighters are coming in off of losses but are seemingly on different paths. Colby Covington is looking to get back into the win column and the number one contender conversation, after losing his title fight to current champion Kamara Usman. Tyron Woodley, on the other hand, is looking to end a two-fight losing streak but, maybe more importantly, to see if he still belongs amongst the elite in the division.
The game plan here is simple for both fighters. Covington is going to look to use his relentless pressure to overwhelm Woodley. While Woodley will look to stop Covington’s takedown attempts and use his one punch knockout power to get the victory.
Unfortunately for Woodley, Covington’s relentless pressure on the feet in the form of high volume, light power punches will back him up against the cage. Against the cage, Covington will take Woodley down and overwhelm him with his grappling and strikes. The pick is Covington by unanimous decision.
Donald Cerrone (+125) vs. Niko Price (-135)
The always exciting, Donald Cerrone, is coming into this one on a four-fight losing streak. His opponent, Niko Price has alternated wins and losses in his last six fights, the last being a loss.
Donald Cerrone is always involved in exciting fights as he’s a performance of the night bonus machine. Niko Price is no slouch himself when it comes to exciting fights. This fight should be contested on the feet where I think Price gets the better of the exchanges. Cerrone has taken a ton of damage in his career but it seems to be the case a lot more recently. Price is tough and durable on the feet with knockout power in his hands. Price is the pick and I like him to get the win inside the distance.
Khamzat Chimaev (-410) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+365)
Khamzat Chimaev is the uber hyped prospect that Dana White has been drooling over ever since his first fight in the UFC. Gerald Meerschaert is the skilled veteran looking to derail Chimaev’s hype train.
I’ll keep it short. Chimaev is the real deal. Meerschaert will be his toughest test to date, but Chimaev will pass this test with flying colors. I expect Chimaev to dominate this fight and win inside the distance.
Johnny Walker (-120) vs. Ryan Spann (+110)
Johnny Walker once carried the same hype as the aforementioned Khamzat Chimaev, but that hype is long gone after back to back bad performances. Ryan Spann is undefeated in the UFC, looking to keep that streak alive and build his name off the former top UFC prospect.
On the feet, Walker is spectacular. He throws a vast array of strikes from every angle. He’s very creative when it comes to striking and has power in his strikes. Spann likes to strike and has legit power as well, but he’s the better grappler here.
Johnny Walker comes into this fight having switched camps multiple times, not being able to train due to a positive Covid-19 test, and in general, he just doesn’t seem focused. As long as Spann can handle the first round barrage, I think he takes Walker down multiple times, fatigues him, and eventually gets the victory via decision or submission.
Mackenzie Dern (-160) vs. Randa Markos (+150)
Mackenzie Dern is a BJJ specialist who should dominate this matchup against Randa Markos. Dern continues to improve her striking and has decent power on the feet. Markos is an ok striker who won’t want this fight going to the mat.
On the feet though, Markos is too hesitant. There isn’t a lot of output coming from her. Dern will be able to handle her own on the feet with Markos and eventually parlay that into takedowns that will allow her to get the submission victory here.
Kevin Holland (-260) vs. Darren Stewart (+240)
Both of these fighters are coming into this fight having performed really well in their last fight. Kevin Holland with a knockout and Darren Stewart with a submission victory.
Kevin Holland is a promising prospect that keeps getting better and better each time out. He’s been super active during this pandemic and continues to gain confidence with each victory. Darren Stewart has good speed and movement on the feet mixed with legit one punch knockout power.
Holland is the pick here. He is super talented. He’s better in the striking department if the fight stays on the feet, but more importantly he’s the better grappler. Stewart wants nothing to do with going to the ground offensively or defensively. I think Holland uses his length to keep Stewart on the outside and pick him apart. If it goes to the ground, Holland submits him.
Jordan Espinosa (-103) vs. David Dvorak (-107)
Jordan Espinosa’s success comes when he keeps his opponent at range. He’s a solid striker who can also wrestle. He likes to use his athleticism to his advantage in fights. David Dvorak, on the other hand, uses his smarts. He’s an analytical fighter who picks his opponent apart throughout the fight. He’s solid anywhere the fight goes and has incredible cardio.
This should be a close fight as the line indicates, but I’m going with Dvorak here. I just think his fight IQ will allow him to break Espinosa downas the fight progresses and leads him to a victory.
Mirsad Bektic (-335) vs. Damon Jackson (+305)
Mirsad Bektic is a very talented fighter taking on the late replacement fighter in Damon Jackson. As the line indicates, Mirsad Bektic is the clear favorite here and that is who I’m taking.
Mayra Bueno Silva (-260) vs. Mara Romero Borella (+240)
Mayra Bueno Silva is powerful on the feet. She’ll look the keep the fight standing against Mara Romero Borella who will look to get the fight to the ground where she can utilize her grappling.
The pick is Silva. Borella wants the fight on the ground but she can be out grappled herself. On the feet, Silva has the clear advantage. Silva wins via KO.
Jessica-Rose Clark (-210) vs. Sarah Alpar (+190)
Both fighters come into this one off long layoffs. Sarah Alpar is a good, durable wrestler who looks to get her opponents to the ground where she looks to take their back and submit them. She is not good on the feet, where Clark will look to keep the fight.
On the feet, Clark will look to keep Alpar at a distance with strikes. She’s good in the clinch with knees and elbows and she’s good wrestler herself. I got Clark here via decision.
Darrick Minner (+280) vs. TJ Laramie (-310)
Darrick Minner is going to go all out for a submission here. He’s going to be super dangerous in the first where he will use his striking to set-up the takedown and look for submissions where most of his victories have come from. His relentless push for submissions often leads to him gassing though.
TJ Laramie is another up and coming prospect who’s got solid striker on the feet, but is more of a pure wrestler. He’s gonna look to get Minner down and grind out a victory here. Laramie is the pick.
Journey Newson (-125) vs. Randy Costa (+115)
This has fight of the night written all over it. Both of these fighters are exciting strikers but who have no quarrels when it comes to taking the fight to the ground. I’m picking Journey Newsome to be a little too much for Randy Costa and get the victory here.
Andre Ewell (-225) vs. Irwin Rivera (+205)
The pick is Ewell in what should be a closer fight than the odds lend you to believe. Ewell is tough with a good chin. He’ll look to use his length to keep Rivera at a distance. Rivera is explosive on the feet but very hittable on entires. Ewell wins via decision.
Tyson Nam (-185) vs. Jerome Rivera (+170)
Tyson Nam has legit one punch knockout power. He’ll use that to stop Jerome Rivera from getting this fight to the ground where he is likely to have some success. The pick is Nam via KO.
Official Plays
1U Niko Price Inside the Distance (+100)
1U Ryan Spann (+110)
2U Parlay Kevin Holland (-260) & Khamzat Chimaev (-410)
1U David Dvorak
