Matt Madd
The Trilogy we all have been waiting for is this Saturday along with a stacked card from top to bottom. I’ll be looking at three fights in this article and providing my thoughts and free picks for each fight.
T-Mobile arena will be packed with fans, this card sold out in minutes and for good reason. A lot of fans are hungry for live events and this will be the first sold out UFC card in Vegas for over a year.
Enjoy the fight card it should be one of the better ones all year and if you tail any free plays this weekend, best of luck.
Main Card
Co Main Event
Gilberto Burns +130 vs Stephen Thompson -160
Big fight in the Welterweight division between these two. This fight is somewhat being overlooked due to the trilogy main event which I do understand. Any time McGregor is on a card all the attention goes his way.
Burns is coming off a title shot loss to Usman back in February. Burns was devastated after the loss, crying in the ring after getting knocked out. He was able to catch Usman early in the fight and stunned him, however Usman did a great job of recovering. Burns showed some inexperience in that fight and got caught multiple times with jabs and a heavy right. Seeing
Usman dropping Burns with a Jab was a bit concerning for me heading into this fight.
Thompson is one of the better and more unorthodox strikers in the UFC. A very frustrating style to fight on the feet, he uses his karate style, reach and distance game so well. Training for a guy like Thompson is almost impossible and he should be able to pick apart Burns on the feet. Burns in my opinion needs to try and get this fight to the ground and use his advantage in this fight, his grappling. The only issue is Wonderboy has great takedown defense and I expect Burns to struggle to get him down. Now Burns has improved his striking however Wonderboy should be able to play the distance game, strike from the outside and pick apart Burns for three rounds. I do like Thompson in this fight to get it done and avoid the takedowns from Burns and heavy right hand.
Pick: Thompson -160
Outcome: By decision +140 ( Lean)
Rounds: Over 2.5 Rds -163
Prelims
Giles +100 vs Du Plessis -125
This fight was scheduled before however the South African Du Plessis had to pull out. UFC was able to reschedule this fight and lucky for them it is on the McGregor card. I’m looking at Du Plessis to get this win due to his volume and cardio advantage. Giles should come out strong in the first but is known to gas later in fights and loses technique. Giles is on a 3 fight win streak however the wins aren’t that impressive in my eyes. One win was against a much smaller James Krause who took the fight on days notice and almost won that fight losing a split decision. He followed that up with a win vs Bevon Lewis, a 1-3 UFC fighter with 2 knockouts. His last fight vs Dolidze was a good win under his belt however I thought it could have gone either way and the Georgian fighter looked slow with his striking, opposite to Du Plessis.
Du Plessis is well rounded with very explosive striking and has a solid submission game. Nine submission wins under his belt and has a very solid Guillotine choke. Giles has been known to get submitted in the past, two losses in the UFC by Guillotine.
In Du Plessis UFC debut he fought the veteran Markus Perez who is no easy fight for anybody. Perez brought pressure early and Du Plessis countered with leg strikes to slow him down. Du Plessis showed in that fight he is a solid counter striker and likes to use his leg kicks. He ended up catching Perez later in the first round with a nice counter punch to finish the Joker in a solid UFC Debut.
I expect Du Plessis to use his kicks, counting strikes when Giles pushes forward with his right hand and do enough to get the win. This isn’t an easy fight to call from an outcome stand point however I could see this ending before the judges.
Pick: Du Plessis -125
Outcome: TKO/SUB/KO +160 ( Lean )
Rounds: Under 2.5 -120 ( Lean )
Early Prelims
Maia -188 vs Eye +160
I like Maia a lot in this fight, however I don’t love the price. Coming off a 5 round fight vs Valentina where she actually pushed her more than any other recent fighters. Maia showed how strong she was in that fight and was able to steal a round due to her strength and grappling. I’m expecting a motivated Maia in this fight who proved she can hang with the best in the world, Valentina.
Eye just hasn’t shown much as of late and has struggled cutting weight. Jessica is just 4-7 in the UFC losing her last two fights. I do give the edge to Eye on the feet however Maia is the much better grappler and stronger girl. Eye has shown to be vulnerable to takedowns and even in her last fight vs Calderwood was able to get her down. Maia should be able to bully her against the cage and on the ground to win this fight. Eye has shown to be tough in the past minus the Valentina KO, extending 11 of her 13 UFC fights to the judges so that’s why I’m leaning this fight to go to the judges. Eye seems more focused on her only fans and other jobs towards the end of her career. Maia should make this one ugly to get the victory and her 19th MMA win.
Pick: Maia -188
Outcome: Decision +105 (Lean)
Rounds: Over 2.5 Rds -350 ( not a bettable number)
For my best bets and personal plays in all sports join the subscription client list available at my website below. Also follow me on all social media platforms for more free picks and everything System Capping.
65% winning percentage in the UFC ( long term )
Sports Betting | Systemcapping
Matt Madd
Owner of System Capping
