Two flyweight championship belts will be on the line this Saturday night when the UFC returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC 255. The PPV is headlined by men’s flyweight champion, Deiveson Figueiredo, who takes on challenger, Alex Perez. In the co-main event women’s flyweight champion, Valentina Shevchenko, takes on Jennifer Maia. With that being said, let’s take a look at the odds, pick some fights, and win ourselves some money. As always, the odds are provided to us by 5dimes via bestfightodds.com.
Odds and Picks
Main Card – 10:00 PM ET
Deiveson Figueiredo (-260) vs. Alex Perez (+240)
Valentina Shevchenko (-1350) vs. Jennifer Maia (+950)
Mike Perry (-117) vs. Tim Means (+107)
Katlyn Chookagian (+225) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (-245)
Mauricio Rua (+150) vs. Paul Craig (-160)
Preliminary Card – 7:00 PM ET
Brandon Moreno (-172) vs. Brandon Royval (+162)
Joaquin Buckley (-230) vs. Jordan Wright (+210)
Antonina Shevchenko (-150) vs. Ariane Lipski (+140)
Daniel Rodriguez (-320) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+290)
Alan Jouban (-140) vs. Jared Gooden (+130)
Kyle Daukaus (-295) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+265)
Louis Cosce (-475) vs. Sasha Palatnikov (+420)
Plays
Mike Perry (-117) vs. Tim Means (+107)
The featured bout should be a fun scrap between Mike Perry and Tim Means. Mike Perry came into this fight as a bigger favorite earlier in the week, but that was before his terrible weight cut.
In the cage, Perry is an aggressive and powerful striker. He’s got a solid jab that he uses to set up his powerful hooks. He’s strong in the clinch and can get takedowns, but ultimately he wants to keep the fight on the feet and go to war. His skills inside the cage are not what has me leaning towards Tim Means in this fight. It’s his personal life which I will get to after breaking down Tim Means’ game.
Tim Means has a good one-two jab that he uses to keep his opponents at range. He has good hooks and when he gets on the inside he throws nice knees and elbows. He’s tough but definitely has a questionable chin as he’s taken a lot of damage in his long career.
Mike Perry’s personal life seems to be in a bit of turmoil if you’re judging from the outside. There have been recent domestic abuse allegations thrown at him by his ex-wife. He left his main fight camp and has been training with his pregnant girlfriend and random fighters. If that was not enough, his said girlfriend has been cornering him in his fights. In regard to this specific fight, all of the perceived turmoil culminated in Perry eating burgers and burritos during fight week which lead to him missing weight and forfeiting thirty percent of his purse. It just seems like Perry is distracted and that’s a recipe for a value bet on Tim Means. Means’ questionable chin is the only thing that worries me in this fight. As long as he doesn’t get knocked out, I believe that he will be able to land more volume and do a lot more damage to Perry throughout this fight. The pick is Means by decision.
1U Means (+107)
Brandon Moreno (-172) vs. Brandon Royval (+162)
This is a very important fight for the flyweight division as Brandon Moreno takes on Brandon Royval in what may very well be the fight of the night. The winner here will all but be guaranteed the next title fight against the winner of the night’s headlining title fight between Figueiredo and Perez.
Moreno easily could have been headlining this card against Figueiredo given his three-fight win streak in the division. When the UFC was looking for a replacement for Cody Garbrandt, it came down to Moreno or Perez. They chose Perez. As a result, Moreno will be looking to cement himself as the number one contender with a win here.
Moreno has an exciting fight style. He’s a well-rounded pressure fighter who brings the fight to his opponents. On the feet, he’s a pretty technical boxer that uses his jab well to set-up his big power shots. He has good cardio that allows him to constantly move and feint throughout the entire fight. He uses those feints to set-up his shots on the feet or to even get takedowns. On the ground, he looks to advance positions and land ground and pound. Many of his fights go to a decision, but his opponent Royval, will be looking to buck that trend.
Royval is one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC and that’s saying a lot considering this will only be his third fight in the organization. Royval has eleven finishes in his sixteen fight career and never been finished himself.
He’s a long, rangy fighter who is wild on the feet. He pressures his opponents relentlessly with a vast array of strikes. He throws punches and kicks from all angles. He has a vicious spinning elbow that he will often throw when he is rocked himself. He has no problem taking a shot to give a shot as he’s a creative enough striker and grappler to eventually put his opponent in bad situations. On the ground, he aggressively looks for submission from any position.
As I said before, this has all the makings for being the fight of the night. Both of these fighters are aggressive, tough, and durable. This will be an exciting and highly contested fight that will ultimately go to Brandon Royval. I believe that his relentless style whether on the feet or on the ground, whether in a good position or a bad position will eventually overwhelm Brandon Moreno. The pick is Royval by decision.
1U Royval (+162)
Odds and Ends
- I parlayed Figueiredo, Shevchenko, and Rodriguez 1.05U (-105).
- Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO (+140) or, at the very least, inside the distance (+110) is a solid play.
- Gooden is a live dog and could be worth a shot if you’re feeling froggy (+130).
- Figueiredo wins inside the distance (-165) is not the best value play, but if you do not want to lay the big money line price, I would not judge you.
- Shevchenko wins inside the distance (-185) is not the best value play, but if you do not want to lay the big money line price, I would not judge you.
