It has been a couple of months but the UFC is back on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi for Fight Island 2.0. As their previous extended Yas Island stay, it begins with a highly anticipated PPV. This time it’s UFC 253 and it goes down Saturday night live on PPV. In the main event, undefeated middleweight champion Isreal Adesanya takes on undefeated challenger Paulo Costa. In the co-main event, former title challenger Dominick Reyes takes on Jan Blachowicz for the vacant light-heavyweight championship title. The two title fights to cap off what should be an entertaining night of fights. With that being said, let’s take a look at the odds, pick some fights, and win ourselves some money. As always, the odds our provided to us by 5dimes via bestfightodds.com
Please note that my official plays are at the end of the article, but there are always betting angles that I present in my individual fight breakdowns that may help you make your own picks and win some money.
Odds
Isreal Adesanya (-185) vs. Paulo Costa (+160)
Dominick Reyes (-270) vs. Jan Blachowicz (+230)
Kai Kara France (-235) vs. Brandon Royval (+195)
Ketlen Vieira (-185) vs. Sigara Eubanks (+160)
Hakeem Dawodu (+120) vs. Zubaira Tukhugov (-140)
Brad Riddell (-340) vs. Alex Da Silva (+280)
Diego Sanchez (+525) vs. Jake Matthews (-750)
Shane Young (+100) vs. Ludovit Klein (-120)
William Knight (+140) vs. Aleksa Camur (-160)
Juan Espino (-300) vs. Jeff Hughes (+250)
Khakis Ibragimov (-165) vs. Danilo Marques (+145)
Preview
Isreal Adesanya (-185) vs. Paulo Costa (+160)
The middleweight championship is on the line between these two undefeated fighters. These guys offer opposing styles that should lead to a very entertaining fight. Paulo Costa is a big, aggressive striker that will continuously push forward looking to damage his opponent with relentless strikes. Isreal Adesanya is a counter fighter that relies on his foot movement and high fight IQ to pinpoint his strikes and keep his opponent guessing. Which style will win out here?
Isreal Adesanya is super technical on the feet. He has incredible accuracy with his strikes. His precision makes up for that lack of one-punch knockout power. He is clearly the best fainter in the UFC. He often confuses his opponent with his movements, keeping them guessing at all times. He’s like a matador. He’s great at avoiding real damage while delivering damage to his opponent. He has a big reach advantage that he uses to keep his opponent on the outside and pick them apart. He will also use his reach to help keep him from being taken down.
Paulo Costa is a smooth, powerful striker on the feet. He’s got great combinations on the feet. He throws punches in bunches as he slings smooth, heavy shots to the head and body. He walks his opponents down and has no problem taking a shot to give a shot. He wears his opponents down with his relentless pressure and body shots. He does have a black belt in BJJ but hardly ever uses it. He’s primarily a striker at this point in his career.
This line is a lot closer than I expected. Don’t get me wrong, Paulo Costa is a legitimate challenger and I would not be surprised if he pulled the upset. Adesanya hasn’t fought a guy like him in the UFC. One that will put the relentless pressure on him, continuously looking to knockout him regardless of Adesanya’s game plan. Adesanya’s opponents are normally confused and just trying to figure out what Adesanya is doing, rather than implement their own game plan. Costa is going to move forward regardless and throw heavy shots. He’ll take damage to give damage. Unfortunately for him. Adesanya won’t be there when he looks to connect. Like I said above, Adesanya is a matador. Just when you think you’re going to hit him, poof, he’s gone. Adesanya has the precision striking to land at will as Costa rushes in on him. Also, Costa does not have the cardio to last five full rounds either, especially as he’ll be chasing Adesanya around the cage all night. I’m all over Adesanya here. I think we’re getting an incredibly favorable line for a fighter of Adesanya’s caliber. Adesanya is legit. His fight IQ and game planing is second to none. He’s fought guys like this in his kickboxing career and will have no problem neutralizing Costa here. I got Adesanya by KO/TKO in the fourth or fifth round.
Dominick Reyes (-270) vs. Jan Blachowicz (+230)
On Saturday night, the light-heavyweight title will be held by a fighter not named Jon Jones or Daniel Cormier for the first time in over nine and a half years. Dominick Reyes looks for redemption after losing his last fight, to Jon Jones, in a highly contested title fight. Jan Blachowicz looks to make it four wins in a row and capture his first UFC title.
Dominick Reyes is legit. He has a sniper left hand that can put anyone out. He’s got serious power in both hands and his kicks. He likes to throw his left kick, especially to the legs and body of his opponent. He has nice uppercuts and lead uppercuts. He’s a good counter striker with good takedown defense. He’s pretty strong in the clinch as well.
Jan Blachowicz is a really good kickboxer. He loves to switch stances. He throws a really good jab, devastating uppercuts, and will mix in heavy leg kicks as well. He really likes to land calf kicks. Like, Reyes, he has legit knockout power. He’s got good cardio and will walk his opponents down. He’s a focused and deliberate fighter. He knows how he wants to attack and rarely allows his opponent to stop him from executing regardless if he needs to take some damage to do so.
I’m really excited to see this fight go down. It’s been nine and a half years since we’ve seen a champion outside of Jones or Cormier. This is a new era for the division and I think it starts with a bang. I’m going with the upset here. Everyone I know is picking Reyes and I understand why. There’s some recency bias as they just saw Reyes narrowly lose to the GOAT in Jon Jones, however, they fail to realize that this is a spot that Blachowicz shines in…the underdog role. He’s something like 6-1 in his last seven fights as an underdog. He’s easily got the skill, determination, and focus to beat Reyes here. Recently, Reyes arguably lost to Oezdemir, a fighter that has a similar style to Blachowicz. I may be totally wrong here. I would not be surprised if Reyes won this fight, but this line is just too wide. The oddsmakers are disrespecting Blachowicz and I’m looking to take advantage of it. I got Blachowicz winning via KO/TKO.
Kai Kara France (-235) vs. Brandon Royval (+195)
This is an intriguing matchup in the flyweight division between two title contender hopefuls. Kai Kara France looks to make it two wins in a row, while Brandon Royval is looking to make it four. The winner here will put their name into the title contender mix.
Kai Kara France is another good, technical striker. He does a great job of distance control. He keeps his opponents at a range where he can pick them apart. He has great accuracy with his strikes. He rips to the body and head all while avoiding strikes himself. He has good counters and hits hard.
Brandon Royval is wild on the feet. He throws spinning kicks, flying knees all set up by a good jab. He’s a high volume striker who’s always applying forward pressure. He stays in the face of his opponent, always moving, always throwing. He is not concerned with getting taken down as he’s very good on the ground. He’s a black belt BJJ practitioner. He threatens submissions from all angles, at all times on the ground.
This should be a very entertaining fight and a pretty big fight for the division. France is the rightful favorite as he’s fought the stiffer competition. He comes from a highly regarded camp and has a lot of hype behind him, and rightfully so. Royval is taking a big step up here, but I think he’s ready for it. I think he’ll be in France’s face, not allowing him to work comfortably on the feet. If and when the fight goes to the ground, Royval should be able to lock up a slick submission. If not, on the feet he applies enough pressure and throws enough volume to win on the judge’s scorecards. I’m going with the upset here. I think this fight is closer than the line implies and I’m taking the dog with more paths to victory.
Ketlen Vieira (-185) vs. Sigara Eubanks (+160)
This fight takes place in the bantamweight division. It will be Sigara Eubanks fourth fight in four months. She’s been incredibly active this year and is coming off of back to back wins. Ketlen Vieira is coming off a tough knockout loss in her last fight which derailed a ten-fight win streak. She was in-line to fight Amanda Nunes with a win in her last fight so she’ll come into this one motivated to get back in the winner’s circle.
Vieira is a very talented fighter. She is a great grappler who will clinch her opponents and aggressively take them down to the ground. On the ground, she’s active, always looking to land ground and pound. She can handle herself on the feet too. She’s got power and solid technique that allows her to have success standing.
Eubanks is tough and durable. On the feet, she doesn’t have a lot of power or technique but she does enough to stay competitive. She’s a black belt in BJJ but has not wrapped up a submission in three years.
Vieira is the pick here. She’s the better fighter and has the better gas tank to last all three rounds, which is likely where this fight is headed. Eubanks’ cardio typically gives her issues after the first round, but regardless, the majority of her fights go the full three rounds. I got Vieira winning via decision.
Hakeem Dawodu (+120) vs. Zubaira Tukhugov (-140)
The winner of this featherweight contest should get a top fifteen opponent for their next fight. Both of these fighters are good, solid prospects in the UFC. This fight is almost to see who is the more legit prospect. I like this booking.
Hakeem Dawodu is a striker. He has good forward pressure and throws a lot of volume on the feet. He’s technical and mixes up his strikes really well. He likes to throw combinations to head and attack his opponent’s legs with kicks. He will continue to move forward whether he’s giving or taking damage. He’s ok in the clinch but does not look to grapple in general.
Zubaira Tukhugov on the other hand loves to grapple. He’s very proficient in that department, but also likes to strike. He’s got power in his hands, especially his left hand. He’s durable and a strong-willed fighter that will not stop looking for the finish.
I’m siding with Tukhugov here. Simply put, he’s the far better grappler and can dominate Dawodu on the ground. On the feet, he’s not at a disadvantage, if anything, he’s got more power than Dawodu. The line is perfect as this will be a close fight, but I’m taking the fighter that has more paths to victory. I would not be surprised if Tukhugov gets the finish here either.
Brad Riddell (-340) vs. Alex Da Silva (+280)
Brad Riddell is the uber-prospect taking on a young, inconsistent, yet dangerous fighter in Alex Da Silva in this lightweight fight.
Riddell is excellent on the feet. He’s a technical striker who walks down his opponents. He throws three to four-punch combinations that are set up by good faints and fakes. He likes to attack the head and body equally in exchanges. In the clinch, he’s strong and can deny takedown attempts. If he is taken down, he’s able to get up. He’s hard to hold down.
Silva is a good striker himself. He’s very aggressive and likes to use his explosiveness and power to take out his opponents. He’s tall and rangy and will use that to throw kicks to the body and head as well. He, too, is strong in the clinch but does not really try to take opponents down. If the fight does go to the ground, he’s got good ground and pound from the top.
Silva is definitely dangerous on the feet, but he’s not really technical. He often uses his athleticism and explosiveness to compensate for lack of technical striking. This often leads to him gassing, especially after the first round. He does not have good takedown defense and if he ends up in top position, he often gets swept. Riddell will have no issues on the ground with Silva. Ultimately, this fight will be contested on the feet and Riddell is just the better fighter there. There’s a reason why he’s considered one of the top UFC prospects right now. I’m taking Riddell here and will be putting him in a parlay as well.
Diego Sanchez (+525) vs. Jake Matthews (-750)
The ever-polarizing and UFC legend Diego Sanchez takes on six-year UFC veteran Jake Matthews. There’s not much to really say about this fight.
Sanchez has looked terrible in the last few fights and really should consider retiring at his age and tenure. You already know what he brings to the table, his toughness, and gas tank. Outside of that, he just has not looked good recently.
Matthews is a solid fighter, as evident by his six-year stint in the UFC. He’s a big guy that will look to utilize his size in this matchup and grapple.
The line on this fight is absolutely insane. There is no way I’m laying it with the inconsistent Matthews or taking it with the way past his prime Sanchez. If I have to pick a winner here, I’m going with Matthews. You, my friend, should stay as far away from this fight as possible.
Shane Young (+100) vs. Ludovit Klein (-120)
This will be a very entertaining fight in the featherweight division between two young, up and coming fighters looking to make a name for themselves in a pretty deep division.
Shane Young is a very tough, durable fighter who likes to use his cardio to pressure his opponents and overwhelm them. He uses a lot of fakes and faints to throw his opponent off. He has a powerful straight punch that he throws behind a good double jab. He mixes kicks into his striking game as well. He’ll throw oblique kicks and front kicks to the body. He’s relentless in his pace in general.
Ludovic Klein is a very well-rounded, skilled fighter who can win anywhere the fight goes. He’s got good cardio. He’s got good movement in the cage. He does a good job of cutting off the cage and forcing his opponent to fight on their heels. He, too, has good fakes and faints that keep his opponent guessing. He’s technical on the feet. He is a good counter striker with power as well. In the clinch, he’s strong and can secure takedowns.
This should be a very close fight as the line suggests. Both of these guys are really talented and tough. They are relentless with their pressure and will look to break each other. I’m going with Klein here. I think he’s the more technical fighter and has the advantage in the grappling department. If the fight goes to the ground Klein should win those exchanges whether he’s on top or bottom. He’s comfortable off of his back and likes to threaten submissions from that position. Klein is the pick for me. Regardless of which fighter you side with, both of these guys are tough, durable, and strong-willed so I’d look at the “fight goes to a decision” prop.
William Knight (+140) vs. Aleksa Camur (-160)
This could be an entertaining light-heavyweight bout. Both fighters have a short pro career, but a lot of amateur fighting experience.
William Knight is a physical freak. He’s super athletic with ridiculous power on the feet but is also a capable grappler. He’s very strong in the clinch and will take his opponent down and threaten submissions. He’s also got good cardio.
Aleksa Camur is athletic as well. He likes to fight on the feet where he utilizes his good head movement and striking skills. He’s got a good, solid jab that opens up his kicking game. He throws a vast array of kicks from all angles to the head, body, and legs of his opponent. He’s a finisher as his fights rarely go to a decision.
This should be a close fight, but I’m going with Camur. Knight is powerful on the feet but very hittable. He does not have good head movement and often keeps his hands down. I think Camur is clearly the better boxer/striker. He will be able to avoid the big shot from Knight and just pick him apart on the feet in route to a victory.
Juan Espino (-300) vs. Jeff Hughes (+250)
This fight will take place in the heavyweight division. Juan Espino has won nine straight fights as his opponent, Jeff Hughes, has lost two in a row.
Espino loves to grapple his opponents rather than strike with them. He will look to get in on Hughes, get him to the ground, and wear on his opponent. He throws big shots when in top-mount and will look to overwhelm his opponent until they give up their back, where he’ll look to choke them out.
Hughes doesn’t offer much himself. On the feet, he’s more of a counter striker and doesn’t throw much volume. He will throw decent kicks, but that can lead to him getting taken down. He’s a decent offensive wrestler but gets taken down himself which is where he doesn’t want to be in this fight.
Espino is the pick here and I could see him winning by ground and pound.
Khakis Ibragimov (-165) vs. Danilo Marques (+145)
There’s not much to dive into in regards to this light-heavyweight fight. Khakis Ibragimov comes into this fight off of three straight losses. He’s looked terrible in the UFC thus far. This is Danilo Marques’ UFC debut, but it seems like it’s more of a one-off fight offer from the UFC as he has not fought in over two and half years.
Ibragimov wants to keep the fight standing where he can utilize his striking and power. He’s a solid grappler and will use that aspect to his game if need be. Marques will look to get this fight to the ground where he can utilize his submission game. He’s a black belt in BJJ and has good submissions.
This will be a sloppy and uneventful fight between two guys that really shouldn’t be in the UFC. I’ll forcefully side with Marques here. I could see him pulling off a slick submission in what may be his first and last fight in the UFC.
Official Plays
2U Adesanya (-185)
1U Blachowicz (+230)
1U Royval (+195)
1U Parlay: Riddell & Adesanya (+102)
