UFC 263 betting card
We have an exciting PPV card this weekend live from Phoenix, Arizona with fans!. A lot of good betting spots on this PPV card, I will preview the three five round fights on the main card and also provide a few predictions on the prelims.
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Israel Adesanya -275 (20-1) vs Marvin Vettori +225 (17-4-1)
We have a rematch in the main event however this time it is for the title. If you watch that first fight, which happened three years ago Israel clearly won that fight 2 rounds to 1. The only judge that gave it to Marvin was of course Chris Lee, who has been criticized time and time again. Either way the fight was close, Marvin was able to get the third round take down and control him there without doing any damage. In my opinion Marvin’s only path will be to get this to the ground , grapple and make it ugly. Israel will have the striking advantage , 6 inch reach along with a 4 inch height advantage. In the first fight Israel was able to out-strike him in the first two rounds and that’s what i’m expecting here as well.
Marvin had an easy time taking down Kevin Holland and used his wrestling to win that fight however it wasn’t an impressive win in my eyes. Holland has terrible takedown defense ( one of the worst in the UFC) so Marvin continued to go for the takedowns to win the fight. When that fight was on the feet Holland was landing and did get a few nice shots on Marvin. In the fight vs Jack Hermansson he was able to out work Jack and show some decent striking as well however he did get hit a lot as well.
We know how good of a counter puncher Adesanya is and if Marvin fights similar to that Holland or Jack fight I think it can be a problem for him. Adesanya has a much better take down defense then Holland so Marvin won’t be able to take him down so easily. Israel also knows this will and should be Marvin’s game plan to win this fight so I expect Israel to be ready for it and counter attack when Marvin pushes forward and tries for the takedowns. The line isn’t a betable line on a straight bet if you’re on the Adesanya side however a two fight parlay piece is an option or you can look at an outcome prop. Marvin has never been finished and is very durable so I could see this fight going 5 rounds with Israel winning on points. This fight will come down to how good Israel can stop the takedowns and if he can keep the distance and use his reach. I don’t see him losing back to back fights, the 205 experiment didn’t work out, however he is back home at 185 and I expect him to get the victory and retain his title on Saturday night. Vettori made a mistake getting Adesanya angry at the press conference and upset all week, he will take it out on him Saturday night.
Pick: Adesanya -275 (Two Fight Parlay Piece)
Outcome – Lean TKO/KO/SUB +175
Deiveson Figueiredo -225 (20-1-1) vs Brandon Moreno +187 (18-5-2)
Another rematch fight for the title this time in the flyweight division. If this fight is anything like the first one we are in for another treat. Moreno showed his toughness and that he can take a punch in that fight. He continued to push forward in a zombie style attack and tried to mix in some wrestling as well. Deiveson was coming into that fight hospitalized the night before with a sickness, he also took the fight on short notice along with possibly underestimating Brandon. I expect this fight to be another war and we have seen Moreno prove he has a rock solid chin however I do think Figueiredo gets the finish this time around. I do see why people want to bet the value with Moreno and I don’t blame you, however the only path I see for Moreno would be to grind out a tough win , take the same if not more punishment than the first fight.
I expect a 100% Deiveson Figueiredo in this fight and a more prepared fighter since he experienced 5 rounds in the first one. This isn’t a straight bet opportunity as the price is too high however it is another opportunity for a two fight parlay piece or an outcome play.
Pick: Figueiredo -225 (Two Fight Parlay Piece)
Outcome – Lean KO/TKO/SUB +130
Leon Edwards -550 (18-3) vs Nate Diaz +400 (21-12)
When I first heard this matchup being scheduled and signed I was confused from the Nate Diaz side of the fight. Listening to interviews these past two weeks made me understand it more and it is that he wants to fight the best guys. All credit to the guy, one of the toughest and most durable fighters in UFC history.
Leon Edwards has had the toughest past few years in recent memory however now I see things coming together for him. This is a great fight and matchup for him and if he does get the win which I do expect he does it is a great name to have on his resume. Leon is the much better striker in this fight with good take down defense so I don’t see any path for Nate to win this fight. Unfortunately if you’re a fan of Nate it will be just him getting picked apart for 5 rounds. We know we can’t lay the high price on Edwards so let’s look at an outcome play here. Diaz has only been knocked out once in his career and it was 8 years ago. I personally can see Nate lasting all five and just taking punishment for all those rounds. Edwards also isn’t known for finishing guys, his last 3 fights besides the Belal no contest were all decision wins and one of them being 5 rounds vs dos Anjos. I could see a late round TKO stoppage or a cut stopping the fight since Nate does bleed in pretty much every fight. I lean more to the decision here with Edwards and for him to get a fairly easy win here.
Pick: Edwards Wins
Outcome: Lean by decision +125
Plus money value bets to look at this weekend
Belal Muhammad -225 (18-3) vs Demian Maia +187 (28-10)
I expect Belal to get the victory in a favourable matchup for him. Belal has been asking for this fight for a few months now since he didn’t get the Edwards rematch. I personally thought the Edwards fight was a terrible match up and it did show early.
Demian is almost 44 years old and this could be his last fight. He is always dangerous don’t get me wrong however I don’t see him getting this to the ground. Belal should be able to keep this on the feet and outstrike him and if needed use the cage to grapple. Maia’s only path to victory would be to pull off a submission which I just can’t see happening. Belal wins the majority of his fights by decision, 6 of his last 7 so I will look that way to avoid paying a big price.
Pick: Belal +125 by decision
Lauren Murphy +125 (14-4) vs Joanne Calderwood -150 (15-5)
This fight could be a number 1 contender fight and it should be a good one. This is a bet called a “value bet”. I do think there is value with Murphy at +125, she continues to get better and better in each fight and is on a 4 fight win streak. Watching Lauren train and following her on all social media platforms she knows how big this fight is and this is her last chance at a title shot as she isn’t no spring chicken anymore. I expect this fight to be close and Lauren to steal a win on the scorecards due to her takedowns and being the stronger women in there Saturday.
Lauren will have to avoid standing and striking with her for 3 rounds and I do think she has the game plan to make it ugly and a grind for 3 rounds. If Lauren decides to just strike for all 3 rounds , Joanne is great and that game with her leg kicks and volume. Lauren will have to take that away by taking her down, grinding on the cage and making it an ugly decision win. I look at this fight as closer to a 50/50 type of line so I see value with Murphy here in a close decision win.
Pick: Murphy +125
Outcome: Murphy by decision +187
Ziam -135 (11-3) vs Vendramini +115 (9-1)
This is another fight where I found some value on the underdog. Ziam is a good striker and does have a small reach advantage in this fight however where he can be bullied is by being taken down. Vendramini shows a fairly well rounded game, he is coming off a big head kick knockout. In that fight he didn’t need to get it to the ground however I do think his path to victory in this one would be to get this fight to the ground.
Vendramini showed against a tough dos Santos that he can wrestle and get the fight to the ground. Vendramini is training out of Factory MMA which is a very highly respected gym out of Colorado. I expect the underdog to get this in the clinch and to the ground and wouldn’t be surprised if he finds a submission or ground and pound victory.
Pick: Vendramini +115
Outcome: Vendramini by TKO/KO/SUB +250
Good Luck this weekend!
Best Smart & Know Your Limits
– Matt Madds
Professional Sports Handicapper
System Sports Capping